4 perennial contenders in danger of missing 2018 World Cup

How could Chile, the two-time defending Copa America champion, be so close to peril? The 2018 World Cup qualifying cycle has chewed up La Roja, and there’s a real chance they could miss out on the tournament itself.

They’re not the only front-runner caught in a quagmire of permutations.

An unfortunate draw in African qualifying has pitted Nigeria, Cameroon, and Algeria in the same group, meaning two of them will not travel to Russia less than two years from now.

Then there’s Italy – the perennial trickster which so often looks dead before coming to life – and the Netherlands on the periphery. Direct qualification seems improbable for the Azzurri, while qualification in general appears difficult for the Oranje.

Here’s why these big football nations are at risk halfway through 2018 World Cup preliminaries:

Chile’s golden generation waning

One of the biggest perplexities in football is Chile’s sudden burnout in CONMEBOL qualifying.

Currently five points adrift of an automatic World Cup berth, the finest crop of players this country has ever produced has nine matches to turn it around.

The campaign started so well. A 2-0 win over Brazil seemed to indicate a shift in power in South American football. The Selecao hadn’t lost to their southwestern counterparts in 16 years.

Since then, Chile has lost its way.

Jorge Sampaoli dramatically resigned as manager in January, citing a lack of respect from the country’s football federation, and although his successor, Juan Antonio Pizzi, won the Copa America Centenario, he’s only claimed three points of a possible 15 in qualifying.

Last week’s 3-0 drubbing in Ecuador was Chile’s most depressing result in recent memory. The altitude in Quito was certainly a factor, but there was a lack of concentration on something as simple as throw-ins.

It’s strange because Sampaoli’s side was nothing if not full of intensity. There was a tactical difference as well, with the current Sevilla boss switching between a 3-4-1-2 and a 4-3-1-2.

Pizzi has insisted on a four-man backline, but it’s not a bad thing. He had success in this year’s Copa America, securing a landmark 7-0 victory over Mexico en route to winning the trophy.

The question is more physical in nature. Alexis Sanchez has played non-stop for two years, influential midfielder Jorge Valdivia has lost his starter’s role, and Gary Medel has missed the past two qualifiers because of a red card.

“Three months ago we won Copa America Centenario with those players and these tactics,” said Pizzi. “Then we played three games and our line was always the same, except for the match against Ecuador. We will insist with things that gave us good results.”

Sluggish start for Ventura’s Italy

There’s always something deceiving about Italy.

Despite never looking particularly convincing in the lead-up to major tournaments, the Azzurri haven’t lost a qualifier since Sept. 2006 – that’s 53 in total, a remarkable achievement for the four-time world champion.

But over the past few days, that record has come extremely close to ending. Ciro Immobile’s heroics saved Italy from damaging losses to Spain and Macedonia, although Giampiero Ventura’s men were sluggish, slow, and sloppy for the majority of those matches.

Ventura has yet to stamp his mark on this team since taking the reins from Antonio Conte. There were cracks in otherwise seamless areas of this squad, notably in Gianluigi Buffon’s goal and the three-man defence, raising the question that perhaps it is time to adopt a new formation.

Related – Watch: Immobile’s 91st-minute winner rescues Italy in Macedonia

Conte ushered in a 3-5-2 when he took the bench role in 2014, but considering Giorgio Chiellini’s numerous injuries and Andrea Barzagli’s age, a back four could be a safer bet.

Alessio Romagnoli was the lone bright spot for Italy over the international break, showing his poise on the ball and his timing in the tackle. A partnership with Leonardo Bonucci could be in the works.

But the changes have to come now. It’s unlikely Italy will pip Spain to first place, leaving the playoffs as the only route to the 2018 tournament. Then there’s always the chance the Italians could face another second-place finisher like Wales or Portugal – a potential death sentence.

African nations shortchanged

It’s hard enough to make the World Cup as an African hopeful, but the job is even tougher for Nigeria, Cameroon, and Algeria.

All three are stuck in what’s easily the group of death in CAF qualifying. Nigeria has made five World Cups, while Cameroon and Algeria have each made the past two. These are perennial players on the main stage, and only one of them can go to the 2018 event.

It’s all the more frustrating to see how unbalanced the rest of the groups are. Senegal, for example, has a much easier go of it in Group D with South Africa, Burkina Faso, and Cape Verde – a trio that can only put together one World Cup appearance.

While Cameroon no longer has a generational talent like Samuel Eto’o in its midst, Nigeria and Algeria are truly up-and-coming football nations.

The Super Eagles – already eliminated from the African Cup of Nations – boast a young core that includes Manchester City’s Kelechi Iheanacho and Arsenal’s Alex Iwobi. Algeria, meanwhile, can count on the likes of Riyad Mahrez, Islam Slimani, and Yacine Brahimi.

Keeping one of these tams out of the quadrennial tournament is a crime against the sport.

But, here we are.

Perhaps this is why several African officials – and Sepp Blatter himself – lobbied to give more than five World Cup qualifying spots to Africa. The African confederation, after all, is the one with the most member associations (54), but most countries don’t have the chance to break through and compete with the world’s best.

Netherlands a ghost of its former self

Missing out on Euro 2016 should’ve sent shockwaves through Dutch football. When Germany suffered an early group-stage exit at Euro 2000, football in Deutschland underwent a massive makeover that put emphasis on youth.

Now, the same can be said for the Oranje.

The Netherlands can no longer rely on Robin van Persie, Wesley Sneijder, and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, and the shift from the old guard came a little late.

Manager Danny Blind has drafted fresher legs into the squad, but the crop of players isn’t going to win trophies. Even the promising ones like Memphis Depay have reached a point of stagnation.

Ruud Gullit said in a recent Guardian interview that it’s arrogance above all that’s kept Holland back:

“In Holland we still think we know everything. We pride ourselves on how good we were with (Johan) Cruyff in 1974. The same as 1988 (when Gullit led Holland to victory in the European Championship). But that’s a long time ago. So maybe we don’t know everything. Maybe we need something more.”

On the surface, Group A seems manageable, but the Dutch are already three points behind Sweden and France. There’s no time to waste.